Key Highlights

  • Polymarket's soccer category generated more than $2 billion in volume during the World Cup's first ten days, with daily volume rising from $53 million to $220 million, a 300% increase over pre-tournament levels.

  • Kalshi's total open interest hit a record $1.16 billion, the first time the platform has crossed the $1 billion mark, up 350% year to date.

  • Combined World Cup-related turnover across both platforms has surpassed $5 billion, with the flagship winner market on Polymarket alone accounting for $2 billion to $3 billion of lifetime volume.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup has hit prediction markets harder than any sports event on record. Polymarket's soccer category generated more than $2 billion in trading volume in the tournament's first ten days, a 300% jump from activity in the equivalent pre-tournament period. Daily soccer volume on the platform climbed from roughly $53 million to $220 million as the group stage got underway.

Kalshi crossed a threshold of its own during the same stretch, with total open interest reaching a record $1.16 billion, the first time the platform has surpassed the billion-dollar mark. That figure represents a 350% increase year to date and reflects a user base holding positions for longer rather than trading in and out quickly. Open interest has been growing faster than raw volume, pointing to larger directional bets staying on the books.

Taken together, the two platforms have processed more than $5 billion in World Cup-related turnover. The flagship winner market on Polymarket alone has accumulated between $2 billion and $3 billion in lifetime volume. The numbers show how far prediction markets have moved from niche crypto products toward mainstream sports engagement, helped by a regulatory environment that has been gradually defining federal jurisdiction over event contracts.

The surge comes at a complicated moment for both platforms. Multiple US states have pushed back against the sector, prompting the CFTC to file against nine states asserting exclusive federal oversight of event contracts. The World Cup volumes give both companies a strong data point in that debate, demonstrating that demand for event-based financial contracts is large and fast-growing.