Bitcoin (BTC) faces a stark downside risk that could send prices below the previous bear market lows, according to a new analysis from blockchain data firm CryptoQuant. The firm warns that a confluence of geopolitical shocks, macroeconomic repricing, and fragile derivatives positioning could push the largest cryptocurrency as low as $10,000 in a worst‑case scenario — far beneath the last bear‑market trough near $15,000. Political Shock From Trump Speech CryptoQuant’s note comes against the backdrop of a substantial pullback from Bitcoin’s record highs. After peaking at roughly $126,000 last October, Bitcoin has retraced about 45% and has entered a months‑long consolidation range between $66,000 and $70,000