Key Highlights

  • Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, said bitcoin bottomed near $60,000 earlier in 2026 and will reclaim its prior all-time high of $126,000, calling the outcome a "foregone conclusion" driven by AI credit expansion and wartime fiscal spending.

  • Hayes identified $90,000 as the level where the rally would turn explosive, arguing that options writers at higher strike prices would be forced to delta-hedge by buying spot bitcoin, mechanically accelerating the advance once that level breaks.

  • The argument rests on AI capital expenditure shifting from cash-funded to credit-funded, requiring commercial banks and central banks to create new money, a process Hayes argues feeds directly into the liquidity cycle that has driven bitcoin's largest bull runs.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of crypto fund Maelstrom, published a new outlook on May 12, arguing that bitcoin has already put in its cycle low near $60,000 and will climb back to $126,000, its prior all-time high. Hayes described the target as a "foregone conclusion" contingent on the macro forces he sees already in motion, primarily AI-driven credit expansion and the fiscal demands of sustained geopolitical conflict.

The core of the argument is a structural shift in how AI infrastructure is being funded. Earlier in the buildout cycle, the largest technology companies financed new capacity from operating cash flow. That model has largely run its course, Hayes argues, and new investment now requires credit creation by commercial banks, backstopped by central bank balance sheet expansion. Both the Federal Reserve and the People's Bank of China loosening financial conditions produce the kind of liquidity environment that has historically driven bitcoin's most significant advances.

Hayes flagged $90,000 as the specific level at which he expects the move to accelerate. Dealers who have sold bitcoin call options at higher strike prices would be forced to delta-hedge at that threshold, buying spot bitcoin to cover their exposure and compressing what might otherwise be a gradual grind into a sharper, faster rally. He did not specify a timeline for reaching $90,000 but called the path from there to $126,000 mechanical once the hedging dynamic kicks in.

On the macro side, Hayes pointed to the U.S.-Iran conflict as a forcing function that is pushing sovereign nations to rebuild domestic infrastructure and stockpile commodity reserves, sustaining an inflationary backdrop he sees as favorable for bitcoin. He noted the November 2026 U.S. midterm elections as a possible short-term headwind but kept his end-of-cycle target at $126,000, unchanged from earlier in the year.