Key Highlights

  • CryptoQuant's bull-bear cycle indicator turned green on May 12, signaling a regime shift from bearish to bullish territory for the first time in over two years

  • The last green reading was March 2023, when Bitcoin traded near $28,000 before its next major leg higher

  • The $82,000–$84,000 resistance band, where the 200-day simple and exponential moving averages converge, remains the key level to clear for full confirmation

  • The cycle flip coincides with six consecutive weeks of spot ETF inflows and long-term holder supply reaching a record 14.4 million BTC

CryptoQuant's bull-bear cycle indicator, a composite gauge that aggregates on-chain metrics including miner revenue, active addresses, and network velocity, flipped green on May 12, according to CoinDesk. The last time the model held a sustained green reading was March 2023, when Bitcoin was priced near $28,000 and was months away from its next major rally.

Unlike price-based momentum indicators, the CryptoQuant composite factors in several on-chain signals simultaneously, making it a preferred tool among analysts looking for early-stage cycle confirmation. The model requires multiple consecutive green days to reduce false positives, and analysts note the current reading has held for more than 24 hours, a threshold that has historically preceded meaningful moves.

The critical technical hurdle remains the $82,000–$84,000 band where the 200-day simple and exponential moving averages converge. Bitcoin tested that zone repeatedly in late April and early May without a clean daily close above it. Analysts watching the CryptoQuant data say a decisive break and hold above $84,000 would strongly reinforce the bull case implied by the cycle flip, while a rejection there would call the signal into question.

The broader context supports the reading. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their sixth consecutive week of net inflows totaling $857 million through May 9, and long-term holder supply hit a record 14.4 million BTC over the same period. If Bitcoin clears the moving-average resistance, the cycle indicator's green flip would align with multiple other bullish on-chain and flow metrics that have been accumulating since mid-April.