Key Highlights

  • The first Cboe Predicts contracts (XSPBW and XSPBX) track the Mini-S&P 500 (XSP) at one-tenth the size of the full index and can pay zero, a partial amount, or a full $100 depending on where the index settles.

  • Interactive Brokers is the first brokerage distributing the contracts, with Charles Schwab preparing to follow as part of a wider retail rollout.

  • Cboe plans to expand the suite with XSP vertical spreads via its Quoted Spread Book framework, which packages complex multi-leg options into standardized, defined-risk structures.

Cboe Global Markets has stepped into the prediction markets space with the launch of Cboe Predicts, a new product suite built around binary options linked to the Mini-S&P 500 Index. The first contracts began trading June 23 under the tickers XSPBW and XSPBX, marking Cboe's first move into a market that has drawn growing attention from both regulated exchanges and crypto-native platforms.

The contracts reference XSP, which mirrors S&P 500 performance but is priced at one-tenth the size of the full index. Each contract resolves to one of three outcomes: a zero payout if the index misses the target zone, a partial payout if it lands within a defined range, or a full $100 if it hits the upper threshold. The structure gives traders a clear, capped risk profile from the outset.

Interactive Brokers is the first brokerage to make the contracts available on its platform. Charles Schwab is among the firms preparing to follow, reflecting a rollout strategy that runs through existing retail brokerage infrastructure rather than direct exchange access. Cboe's timing puts it alongside a widening field of regulated players competing for retail market share in event-based contracts.

Beyond the initial binary products, Cboe has outlined plans to expand Cboe Predicts with XSP vertical spreads using its Quoted Spread Book framework. That system standardizes multi-leg strategies into predefined packages while keeping risk defined from trade entry, which the exchange says lowers the complexity barrier for retail participants. The broader prediction markets segment has drawn intensifying regulatory scrutiny as volumes across platforms have climbed.